~~Market Comments: 4/23/2014
A supportive demand picture and concern over wet weather
moving into the Midwest the next 5-6 days and being
accompanied by cool temperatures allowed corn to post
another strong day with futures closing 7-8 cents higher.
Weather forecasts are calling for ¾ to 3 inches of rain in two
weather systems moving through the Midwest but forecasts
following these systems seem to be improving. Good planting
progress has been made the past few days but the market
continues to trade concern over perceived planting delays.
Could we be 20%+ planted in Monday’s report? This would
be much better than last year but behind the 5 year average of
30%. Funds were back on the buy side today, buying 8,000
contracts by mid-session, partially on unwinding bean/corn
spreads. Weekly ethanol report showed production down 3.1%
from last week but 6.7% above last year. Corn used for
ethanol was 95.55 mln. bu., down 3 mln. bu. from last week
and 3 mln. bu. below what is needed on a weekly basis to meet
USDA projections. Weekly export corn sales tomorrow are
expected to fall between 19.7-31.5 mln. bu.Market unsure as to whether we will
meet USDA export projections due to ongoing China issues
while at the same time China bought 120 tmt U.S. sorghum for
13/14 delivery! U.S. corn is currently competitive with
supplies from Argentina. Processor market also becoming
more aggressive in covering April/May needs. Rail values
have a slightly firmer feel. Producer selling interest has been
light overall so far this week.
Interesting bean market today as old crop down 11 cents and
new crop up 12 cents. News of Chinese cargoes being
rerouted to the U.S., China selling domestic supplies at
auction, and Chinese buyers having credit issues as well as
poor crush margins are all pushing the nearby lower.
Unwinding long bean/short corn spreads also at work and old
crop/new crop bean spread unwinding was supportive to new
crop. In addition to this, the market remains concerned over
domestic U.S. supplies until new crop is available.
Estimates are that the U.S. will need to import 75+ mln. bu.
of beans vs. current USDA projections of 65 mln. bu.
Estimate is that U.S. will import 35+/- mln. bu. of beans
from Canada, which means we will need to import 40 mln.
bu. from S. America or roughly 20 cargoes. There is also
speculation that the U.S. will import 500,000 tons of
soymeal vs. the 215,000 tons currently projected by USDA.
All of this, coupled with logistics, will keep things
interesting. Weekly export sales tomorrow are expected to
fall between -7 mln. bu. and +4 mln. bu.
USDA CROP PROGRESS Monday 4/21/2014 @ 3:00 PM
USDA Weekly USDA EXPORT SALES Thursday 4/24/2014 @ 7:30 am
Weekly USDA EXPORT INSPECTIONS Monday 4/28/2014 @ 10:00 am
HAVE A PREMIER DAY
The information contained in this report is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to accuracy or completeness by Premier Cooperative, Inc. This report is provided for information purposes only and is not furnished for the purpose of, nor intended to be relied upon for specific trading in commodities here in.