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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/28 11:18

   Grains Quiet to Lower at Midday

   The U.S. stock market indices are lower with the Dow down 20 points. The 
interest rate products are lower. The dollar index is 25 points higher. 
Energies are mixed with crude down 0.10. Livestock trade is mostly higher at 
midday in active trade. Precious metals are lower with gold down $14.  

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments


   Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower at midday with trade continuing to chop 
around in the lower end of the recent range with additional duties on DDG's 
being announced by China and the fourth-largest sale on record with Mexico 
buying 1.577 million metric tons of corn. The weekly ethanol production showed 
production up 8,000 barrels per day, and stocks were up 600,000 barrels, 
ethanol futures have edged a bit higher at midday. The weather forecast looks 
open except for the east which should allow better harvest progress in the 
west. USDA is releasing the September 1 Quarterly Stocks report on Friday 
morning. Expectations are at 1.757 billion bushels with a range estimates of 
1.665-1.862 billion versus 1.716 on the September WASDE old crop balance sheet. 
On the December contract, chart support is at $3.26 1/2, the three-week low, 
then the contract low at $3.14 3/4. The 20-day at $3.31 3/4 is nearby 
resistance then $3.40, last week's high, then $3.44 1/4, the August-September 
high. The trend has turned lower, which could trigger some additional long 
liquidation ahead of the report.


   Soybean futures are narrowly mixed at midday with demand helping trade to 
firm off the overnight lows as the USDA announced 133,00-metric tons sold to 
China, and 211,171 to unknown. Meal is $3 to $4 higher and oil is 50 to 60 
points lower. Harvest pressure should continue to build with the more open 
weather in the west allowing farmers to play catch up. The Quarterly Stocks 
average trade guess is 202 million bushels versus 195 on the September WASDE 
old crop carryover estimate. The range of estimates is 158-256 million. The 
daily export wire has been active in recent days, with trade expecting China to 
remain actiove. November soybean support is at $9.37, the previous the 5-month 
low, then $9.34, our low yesterday. Resistance is at the $9.60 area where we 
find both the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. 


   Wheat trade is flat to 6 cents lower higher at midday with light buying 
surfacing during the day session. The dollar remains fairly rangebound, keeping 
the world export competitiveness around the same as recent days. Any positive 
fresh export news will limit downside, but we need consistent news to get some 
demand buying going in the bigger picture, Egpyt is expected to return for more 
coverage soon, and Jordan was unable to secure supplies on its recent tender. 
The September 1 wheat stocks average trade guess is at 2.398 billion bushels; 
the range of estimates is 2.1-2.558 billion. On the Kansas City December chart 
support is at $4.15, the 20-day and lowest major moving average; resistance is 
at $4.25 3/4 which is the September high. 

   David Fiala can be reached at 
Follow Fiala on Twitter @davidfiala


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